Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2

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However higher education is a closely regulated industry with quality defined by the U.

Innovative Technologies and Their Impact on Assessment of Health Technologies

Department of Education. They assumed the disruption began in —when data became available—and had data from the first five years of experience. They write:. Not much change is on the horizon if one projects linearly into the future. But when viewed from the [S-curve] logarithmic perspective, the data suggest that by about 50 percent of high school courses will be delivered online. In other words, within a few years, after a long period of incubation, the world is likely to begin flipping rapidly to student-centric online technology.

Beginning in data from the Sloan Consortium of the number of online students in higher education taking online courses became available see Figure 2. Only the first four years were available when Christen and Horn wrote Disrupting Class. In —the latest date data is available— The close relationship between actual data compared to projected data validates the use of the S-curve model of disruptive innovation.

Patterns of disruption

Data from the first few years is sufficient to create a projection that should be relatively accurate though changing conditions can impact the projected number of students taking online courses. Compared to consumer goods, this is a lengthy period of implementation and the S-Curve becomes closer to a simple growth projection. A simulation of the S-curve is shown in Figure 3 for SloanC data. The actual experience began with online students in using 9. The model shown begins with this number and reaches the midpoint between and ; the linear continuing growth projection does not reach the midpoint until or The curve of projected blue line shows the increasing conversion of users from old to new technologies.

The actual enrollments and values projected from data, converted to enrollments, are also shown in Figure 4. Three conversion rates were simulated in Figure 5 to show the effect of changes. The current and projected total enrollment in higher education is also shown. Wikipedia defined sustaining innovation as an alternative to disruptive innovation:. Sustaining innovations may be either "discontinuous" i. So far, MOOCs are offered to students for free, though there may be optional fee-based services. MOOC providers transferred the responsibility for paying for course content, implementation, and, in some cases, limited faculty support for students, to the sponsoring universities.

Grants to faculty members are often inadequate. The facilities and specialized staff to produce high quality learning materials are not available to most faculty. Andy Kessler of the Wall Street Journal described possible cost savings. OU-UK currently enrolls more than , students. Now Sebastian Thrun has a more subtle interpretation of his experience.

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MOOCs did show workers—many with college degrees in rapidly changing fields— did need and would participate in an available learning experience. Their learning should increase the rate of innovation in those industries, the basis for increasing economic productivity. MOOCs also showed that students quickly self-select based on the relevance of the course to their interests, the effort required, and their own capability to accommodate the work associated with the course. For several years, U. The first online for-credit course was offered by Stanford University for the school year.

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Computer-aided instruction, as it was called in the s, has proved difficult to implement. Research continues on barriers identified by Suppes to the effective and productive use of the learning technology. The expense of quality course development continues to be a major barrier at a time of fiscal stringency. Now more and more students are electing or preferring to take courses in an online format.

For the past decade the growth in students taking online courses has consistently exceeded the growth of enrollments, as shown in Figure 6. The National Center for Education Statistics has forecast a decline in opening fall enrollment for and recovery in based on fewer high school graduates in The chart shows the combination of increased enrollment and the percentages of student with online courses combine to increase online enrollments at Average annual growth rates for the past five years, academic years through are shown in Figure 6.

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  4. Open fall headcount enrollment increases an average of 4. The average annual growth rate of students enrolled in one or more online courses for the same period is Reviewing historical progress, the cumulative growth for the past five years is shown in Figure 7. For this period the cumulative opening fall enrollment has increased The reality of online learning, as measured by the number of students taking an online course, is a substantial increase even in years of financial pressures on enrollments.

    Colleges and universities have expanded the number of online courses and enrollments using faculty and staff with limited resources. A major achievement.

    persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies report 2

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    MOOCs: A Disruptive Innovation or Not? –

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